bimanset
ABD’de enflasyonun yavaşladığını gösteren veriler Fed’in faiz artırımlarını tamamladığına ilişkin öngörüleri desteklerken, ABD dolarının zayıflamasına ve tahvil faizlerinde düşüşe yol açtı.
3 ayın en düşük seviyesine yakın seyreden dolar endeksi ve düşen tahvil faizleri, altının ons fiyatını son 7 ayın en yüksek seviyesine taşıdı.
Fed’in sıkılaştırma döngüsünün sonuna geldiğine dair beklentilerle artan taleple altının ons fiyatı üst üste 5 işlem gününde yükselerek 2 bin 50 doları test etti. Altının ons fiyatı, şu sıralarda 2 bin 45 dolarda dengelenirken, rekor 8 Mart 2022’de görülen 2 bin 70,40 dolar seviyesinde bulunuyor.
İsrail ile Hamas arasındaki çatışmanın genişleyeceği endişesinin de genellikle güvenli liman olarak görülen altının fiyatındaki artışa katkıda bulunduğunu belirten analistler, altın fiyatlarının Fed’in 2024’ün ilk yarısında “güvercin” bir eğilime doğru bir dönüş yapacağı yönündeki piyasa beklentileri tarafından yönlendirildiğini vurguladı.
Öte yandan düşük faiz oranları, faiz getirmeyen altını tutmanın fırsat maliyetini azaltırken, Hindistan’da düğün sezonu, Batı dünyasında Noel dönemi ve Çin’de yeni yılın altına olan talebi artırması bekleniyor.
FED’İN POLİTİKASI KİLİT ROL OYNUYOR
ING Emtia Stratejisti Ewa Manthey, AA muhabirine yaptığı açıklamada, “Zayıf dolar ve düşük tahvil faizleri altını yukarı taşımaya devam ediyor.” dedi.
Piyasalarda bu hafta 3. çeyrek büyüme oranı ve Fed’in enflasyon göstergelerinden Kişisel Tüketim Harcamaları Fiyat Endeksi dahil ABD’nin ekonomik verilerinin yakından takip edileceğine işaret eden Manthey, “Fed’in politikasının gelecek aylarda altın fiyatlarına ilişkin görünüm açısından kilit rol oynamaya devam edeceğini düşünüyoruz. değerlendirmesini yaptı.
Manthey, ABD dolarının gücünün ve Fed’in sıkılaşmasının bu yılın büyük bir bölümünde altın piyasası üzerinde baskı yarattığını belirterek, yükselen faizlerin, “herhangi bir faiz sunmayan” altın için genel olarak olumsuz olduğunu aktardı.
2024 BEKLENTİSİ
Fed’in 2024’ün 2. çeyreğinde faiz indirimlerine başlamasının beklendiğini, bunun da altın fiyatlarındaki yükselişini destekleyeceğini kaydeden Manthey, “Altın fiyatlarının, Fed’in para politikasının gevşemesinin ardından doların zayıflamasıyla 2024’te destekleneceğine inanıyoruz” diye konuştu.
Orta Doğu’daki gerilimin tırmanma riskinin de değerli metallere destek sağladığına işaret eden Mantheş, “Altın fiyatlarının gelecek yıl tüm zamanların en yüksek seviyesine çıkmasını ve 4. çeyrekte ons fiyatının ortalama 2.100 dolara ulaşmasını bekliyoruz” dedi.
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